Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - San Francisco Business Times:

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The pace of private-sector job losses will slow over the next few but state and local governmentr layoffsare beginning, the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its latest California and Metro Forecast released The forecast said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percent early next year, and will remainn in double-digits until the end of 2011. The centet produces quarterly economic forecasts of the United California and nine metro from Sacramento to Fresn and the San FranciscoBay Area. In the Sacramento unemployment will risefrom 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percen t next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in the report said.
Unemployment is expected to reacyh 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecast to rebound in the third quarter ofnext year, when job growtuh will improve to 0.8 percent. A “stronvg rebound is expected to take place in professionakland business, and educational and health serviceas sectors,” the report said of Sacramento. “Job growth is expectee to have its first positive full yearat 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percengt next year.
San Jose and San Francisco will be the firstf metro areas in Northern California to returmn totheir pre-recession employment levels, in the secondf and third quarters of 2012, the study said. Sacramento and Merced will be among the last norty state metro areas to regain peak in fourth-quarter 2013. Valleji is last, with a return expected in the secon quarterof 2014. The Central Valley will be hard hit by the combinatioj of recent state tax increases and massivr expectedbudget cuts, the Business Forecastinv Center said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerous aftershoc to a region still reelinh from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecastingv Center, said in a news release. The Centralp Valley is an economicdisaster area, but most of its “economicc shocks are cyclical in nature rathee than permanent changes such as closec military bases,” the news release said. Construction continues to lead job losses inpercentage terms, declinin another 15 percent to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the declinedin 2009, losing 135,000 jobs this year. • Retai l sales will not returmn to their 2007 leveluntil 2011.
New car and truck sales will fallbeloa 1.06 million in 2009, after exceeding 2 millionj for most of the decade. Sales will graduallh increase as the economy reaching 1.46 million next year, and 1.73 million in 2011. • Housinyg starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000 more than 80 percent below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housingh starts will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. • Health care is the only secto that will not shrinkthis year. The gain of 13,00p0 health care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowesy growth this decade. • Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarm payrollds will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewided during the two-year recession. • The California econom will finally hit bottomn in the fourth quarter ofthis year, and will beginm a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 before many key economi c indicators such as unemployment return tohealthyt levels. • The state’s recessiojn should end in the last quarter of this but the job market will remaijn weak through most ofnext year.